The World Cup is nearing its conclusion, with the semi-finals in the next few days. There have been a lot of story lines concerning VAR and the value that it brings (or doesn’t bring), the struggles of the ‘bigger’ teams (Germany, Spain, Argentina, etc.), England’s path and success on the way to the semi-final, and divisive debates like the back and forth on the Messi/Ronaldo.

A big point for me has been the influence of set pieces in determining the outcomes of games and how the struggles of the likes of Germany and Spain, in particular, highlight a bigger trend within the World Cup about the preparation time that the teams and players have in the build up to the competition. It is, of course, important to best utilise and periodise time before a competition, but certainly even greater before something like the World Cup, where the circumstances see players from a variety of clubs coming together for a limited preparation. From the outside, we cannot see exactly what managers are telling their players, but they will likely go over the basic expectations of what the manager wants the team to be looking for in and out of possession. With the limited time, however, how in-depth can the conversation go? Because of the limited time, do teams that look to play a more intricate style of play have a harder time? With teams defending deeper, it certainly takes more moments of brilliance from individuals within a system to break it down, so do teams like Spain and Germany rely on individual brilliance within a system to play the decisive role? As opposed to a team like Sweden, who will focus on the system and hope players like Forsberg have a good game, but don’t rely on them to win games.

Set Pieces

Based on the World Cup so far, it seems part of the answer to what managers work on in their brief national team camps is set pieces. From a game and tactical point of view, it has been incredibly interesting to see the amount of goals that have come from set pieces. This certainly has some correlation to the overall state of the teams’ approach to the World Cup; a tournament that does not allow for too much preparation with players coming off of club duties. In the 2014 World Cup, there were 30 goals from set pieces of 171 total, so just about 17.5%. According to FIFA, in the group stages, there have been 23 goals directly from set pieces (FIFA does not officially count a goal like Kroos’ free kick against Sweden for some reason) from a total of 122 goals, which is 18.8%. However, I would very much included Kroos’ free kick as a set piece. Yes, there were a few touches in the build up: Kroos to Reus, Reus set, Kroos finishes and so it seems to be that FIFA does not take into account anything that isn’t directly from a set piece or the second phase of set pieces or routines. Just looking at the England v Panama game as an example, most would agree that four of England’s six goals came from set pieces: one corner kick, two penalties, and a set piece routine. However, FIFA only credits the two penalty kicks as set piece goals and so based on this, it seems as though FIFA is only counting goals that come from the first touch of the set piece as a set piece goal, which is not the common definition. Because of this, I have gone through and created the image below that better illustrates the set pieces scored. Note that these are just goals scored during the group stages. In total, there were 122 goals scored in the group stages. The red dots depict goals from open play and the orange represents goals from set pieces either directly or second phase. Of those 122 goals, 50 were set pieces (19 penalties), which is 40% of goals scored, a much higher rate than FIFA reports. Be sure to hover the dots to get some information on the goal itself. You’ll now have see go to the plot externally here: World Cup 2018 Group Stage Goals

Preparation time is always short between the end of the club season and national team camps. This is one of the difficulties that international managers face; limited time with the team to put into practice all the principles, style, system, organization etc. that one wants. When teams lack that preparation time, set pieces become a bigger part in the plan for overall success as it is must easier to go through set piece routines than, for example, how to maintain good structure in possession in order to counter press and prevent counter attacks. Rather than working on these complexities, working on set piece routines is comparatively simple and garners immediate results. England is the perfect example, as they have found huge success in this area, with different choreographed set pieces. However, for as good a England have played, they have not created too many chances from open play. There are no doubts that Southgate has the team playing well and with a bit more creative and freedom, but have the players been given enough time in preparation or simply by playing together to allow for that good faith shown by Southgate to garner results? Not really and so for England, set pieces will likely be key for semi-final and final victories.

Germany and Spain

Some of problems stemming from a lack of preparation lead to things like Germany being knocked out of the World Cup in the group stage of the competition, making this the third successive World Cup the reigning champions have gone out in the group stage. There are a couple of layers to unpack to reasons behind why this happened to Germany. A lot of teams have defended deep, making it hard for teams to breakdown, and have looked to counter. Germany, who look to play in a style where they try to dominate both the ball and space, need significant time on the training ground to work on the aspects of the game that allow for this. This was made much clearer by Germany’s opening game against Mexico where the German’s lack of structure in possession allowed for Mexico to get a number of chances from counter attacks. Below are two screenshots (and I am wishing I had the tactical cam views): one of the German shape prior to Mexico’s goal and the other a gilded chance to Mexico in the second half.

Notably, both of these came when Hummels was pulled out of shape trying to challenge a player in midfield, however, the big thing to note is how Germany consistently left Hummels and Boateng isolated against two Mexican attackers and forced Hummels and Boateng to close higher up the field, allowing space behind to counter. Essentially, a 2v2 at the back without midfield structure or press in front of them. Mexico were proactive in exposing Germany; they pressed well, man-marked Toni Kroos, which allowed for quicker counter attacks to break, and exposed the space vacated by Germany’s full backs.

It is, of course, easy to say that more preparation time could have helped Germany, but they were so vulnerable in every game and the goals scored against them were telling of a team that lacked an understanding of structure in possession to limit counter attacks and had failed to progress tactically since the 2014 World Cup victory. Interestingly, when Germany played Mexico in the Confederations Cup in 2017, Löw played with a back three that was able to limit Mexico’s counter attacks. A big criticism of Löw is that his team did not look like they evolved at all tactically. Is it harder for international managers to evolve their teams? They have significantly less time with the teams, they have a limited pool of players to choose from, and they are limited in the amount of games and trainings that they can actively coach.

This brings us to Spain. Another big team that has gone out of the competition earlier than expected. Spain, famed for being able to keep the ball, looked inept in making use of their possession against Russia. Some of this might be down to the coaching debacle that came just a day before the start of the World Cup, with Lopetegui sacked for accepting the Real Madrid job, and Hierro (having only management one season at Oviedo) replacing him.

The game against Russia was a display of a what happens when you sack a manager the day before the start of a tournament, coupled with the fact that, again, Spain look to play a brand of football that requires more complexity in positioning and structure in possession. During the game, Spain’s play was slow and aimless. I generally do not like to use the phrase ‘possession for the sake of it’ as I want to believe that a coach always has a reason behind their plan, but this was the closest thing to the epitome of that statement. There was no intent to get the ball forward with any urgency, a lack of players between the Russian blocks, and no players looking to gain any sort of positional superiority either on or off the ball. The game cried out for some like Thiago that can break the lines on the dribble or with a pass and for Spain to get players between the lines. Time and again, Spain played the ball around the back, albeit very slowly, with the double-pivot of Busquets and Koke completely unnecessary. Below is a video from the second half of the game, which shows the lack of urgency in Spain’s play, but also shows Iniesta trying to get on the ball in the right areas. Notice when Pique passes up a chance to play a ball into him, Iniesta’s reaction.

The Guardiola Effect

Is there something genuine to say about Pep Guardiola’s influence on the World Cup? Spain won it when he was manager at Barcelona, Germany won it when he was managing Bayern, and now England have made it to the semi-finals. It is noteworthy that six of the players in Spain’s final-winning XI were Barcelona players and six players (seven including Götze as a sub) in Germany’s final-winning side were Bayern Munich players? This England side have just three players from Manchester City in Stones, Walker, and Sterling starting, but Stones and Sterling have arguably two of the most influential figures in the side, with Stones’ dictation of where he wants midfielders in England’s build up (very noticeable against Colombia with lack of real pressure on him) to Sterling’s movement off the ball and breaking of lines helping create for others.

Something can also be said about Pickford in goal. Would Joe Hart be in goal for England had Guardiola not dropped him when he came to Manchester City? Southgate recently praised Pickford as being the model, modern-day goalkeeper, highlighting the Everton keepers ability with his feet and distribution. Would England have been in the same situation without Guardiola’s dropping of Hart? Of course, it is very difficult to say, but I think there is little doubt that Guardiola has had an influence on England’s approach and outlook on the game and, if not the country as a whole, perhaps that man that currently matters most for the Three Lions, Gareth Southgate.