With the Champions League final nearly here, I thought I’d take the time just to point out some key points that could determine which of the Bundesliga clubs takes the trophy back to Germany from Wembley.

Götze Out, Gündoğan’s Burden

Gündoğan was always going to be influential in the match, but now, with Mario Götze being ruled out due to his hamstring injury, Gündoğan has a significant burden to make runs forward from midfield. In Munich and Dortmund’s recent Bundesliga match, he showed his ability to get forward from deep well even though he was able to feature for just 13 minutes.

Throughout Dortmund’s Champions League campaign though, Gündoğan has been playing as a deep-lying playmaker and has done exceptionally well. However, his role without Götze in the team changes and he won’t be able to play the same role as Götze performs in the hold behind the striker. Götze enjoys the freedom in the space between the opposition’s midfield and back line and drifts from flank to flank as Dortmund look to overload the wide areas. Below you see that overload, against Real Madrid, where Götze who is on the ball, is on the left with Reus and Schmelzer, with Blaszczykowski just to the right of Reus and Bender coming in from midfield.

Without Götze they won’t be able to do this as often as Gündoğan’s support to the attack will come from deep runs out of midfield as we saw in his shorten game against Munich in domestic play. A worthy note is that Bayern Munich played without Javi Martinez in that domestic tie, a player whose dynamism could easily limit Gündoğan’s runs from midfield.

That domestic tie gave us the ability to see how Dortmund would play without Götze and with Gündoğan acting as an advanced playmaker rather than a deep-lying playmaker. In that match, the latter role was taken up by Nuri Sahin and he excelled on both sides of the ball. He was able to spread the field very well with his passing and when without the ball, he was successful in all 8 of his tackles, a presence that allowed Gündoğan to get forward with more ease.

Gündoğan will undoubtedly be in the Dortmund XI on Saturday and will more than likely be playing further forward than he has in the rest of the Champions League campaign. With that Klopp needs to decide whether he wants to play Kehl and Bender as two holding midfielders to try to stop Javi Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger, or whether he will opt for Sahin to put in tackles and take on the deep-lying role.

Klopp also has Kevin Grosskreutz has an option and it is one that could give the Dortmund side a bit more flexibility has he has been used in numerous positions by Klopp throughout the season. His inclusion into the side would certainly give them a lot of energy and defensive work rate allowing him to be used in either a wide left area, allowing Reus to move into the centre and pushing Gündoğan back into a deeper role or he could play Grosskreutz alongside Bender and allow Gündoğan to push on.

Midfield Battle

As seen above, there are questions over how Dortmund will lineup. They’ll certainly play in a 4-2-3-1, but the personnel is in question. If Klopp really wants to go for it right, Sahin and Bender will be the 2 behind Reus, Gündoğan, and Blaszczykowski. Bayern will undoubtedly start with Martinez and Schweinsteiger behind Ribery, Muller, and Robben.

Though Sahin had a great game last time out against Bayern Munich, it was against a lesser side with Gustavo and Tymoshcuk in for Martinez and Schweinsteiger. Martinez has recorded the most interceptions throughout the Champions League this year, while Schweinsteiger has completed the second most tackles. Both are dynamic as well,  making late runs into the box and supporting the attack.

Muller might be the biggest difference though as he help Mandzukic press Dortmund’s back line and then drop onto either Bender, Kehl, or Sahin, but when Bayern are in possession, he can really open things up for Martinez, Schweinsteiger and the attacking trio. His movement off the ball allows everyone else to have space to work in and if he is able to continue this, to drag either Kehl or Bender out of position, it would certainly open things up for Martinez and Schweinsteiger to dictate play.

Reus, Ribery, Robben

All three players have the ability to turn the match on its head with their directness. Reus is certainly going to have to have a better match than both Ribery and Robben as he will have to try to make up for the creative absence of Götze.

During the Real Madrid matches, Reus, often compared to Ronaldo for their similar direct dribbling style, ‘out-Ronaldo’ Ronaldo. His running as able to drag Real’s defenders out of position. Against Bayern, he’ll have to continue to do so and will be up against Phillipp Lahm, which also makes his role off the bal important as Lahm and Robben work well together in allowing Lahm to get forward often and effectively. It will be Reus’ responsibility to track the runs of Lahm, that is unless Klopp deploys him centrally and opts for someone more defensive like Grosskreutz on the left side of midfield.

Ribery and Robben give Bayern Munich the ability to stretch the field and open up spaces for the likes of Javi Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger to make late runs into the spaces in and around the opposition’s penalty area, something that Martinez has done very well for Bayern since joining them.

Both Bayern Munich attackers are very good at running with the ball and finding the spaces. Ribery usually looks to take on his full back and beat them to the byline where he can then put in a cross, whereas Robben likes to come inside on to his favoured left foot. Just have a look at where they took on players in their last match against Barcelona.

Pressing and Countering

Both teams have good ball-playing centre backs. Bayern have Dante and Dortmund have Hummels. Both are very capable at starting attacks from the back and their time on the ball could be crucial. With that, it is going to be important for both sides to press well. Dortmund have become increasingly well known for their ‘gegenpressing.’ The principle expands unpon Klopp’s study of Barcelona’s pressing by involving the whole team in the press rather than just the attacking four or five.

Despite playing a counter attacking game against Barcelona, Bayern are one of the best sides when it comes to playing a possession-based game, coming in second in possession percentage per game in Europe just under Barcelona. One way to disrupt a team that plays possession-based football is to press them well and Dortmund are one of the best teams at doing so and Bayern showed that they too can press well as they did against Barcelona.

Pressing well and doing so high up the pitch usually leads to counter attacking and both sides have the ability to do so with pace and efficiency. Dortmund have shown their abilities throughout the tournament, whereas Bayern were able to adopt to not having the ball much against Barcelona by countering well.